NQ London Playbook — Decision Tree (with Stats)

By Herman Trading

Introduction

This research presents a data-driven trading framework for the London session on Nasdaq Futures (NQ), built from more than three years of verified historical data.
Using Python and Jupyter Notebooks, each session interaction between Asia, Pre-London, Opening Range (OR), and London was statistically measured — identifying how often sweeps, continuations, and reversals occur, and how far price typically extends after each.

The result is both a research study and a trading playbook — a structured decision tree that translates probabilities into actionable logic for intraday traders.

Backtested statistics cover January 2022 – August 2025.
All findings are hypothetical, for educational purposes only.

Dataset and Methodology

Data source: BacktestMarket.com
Instrument: Nasdaq Futures (NQ)
Timeframe: January 2022 → August 2025
Resolution: 1-minute OHLCV data
Timezone: Converted from Chicago (CT) → New York (ET)
Sample size: 719 trading days
Average Asia range: 70.86 points

Each trading day was divided into four core sessions (ET):

Key Definitions

Why Asia Size Matters

Asia defines the volatility regime for the entire day.

Large Asia (> 70.9 pts) → High probability of strong continuation after OR (≈ 69 – 87%) with faster resolution (2–12 min).
Small Asia (≤ 70.9 pts) → Shorter expansions (≈ 17–29 pts), more retests, and slower development (6–12 min).

High-Level Probabilities

These aggregated probabilities help identify the likely path for the London session based on Asia range and Pre-London behavior.

How to Use This Intraday

Step 1 – Classify the Day at 02:00 ET

At the Opening Range start:

Measure Asia range (20:00–00:00 ET).
• > 70.9 = Large • ≤ 70.9 = Small
Identify what Pre-London did to the Asia range:
• No sweep • Swept High • Swept Low

This combination defines the Opening Range bias (High vs Low vs None).

Opening Range (02:00 – 03:00 ET)

Asia Above Average (> 70.9 pts)

PL Swept High → Low-first bias (≈ 50%)
PL Swept Low → High-first bias (≈ 48%)
No Sweep → Balanced tilt

Quick read: Large Asia tends to flip the Pre-London direction.
A Pre-London high sweep often leads to a low-first OR break, and vice-versa.

Opening Range (02:00 – 03:00 ET)

Asia Below Average (≤ 70.9 pts)

PL Swept Low → High-first bias (≈ 54%)
PL Swept High → Low-first bias (≈ 53%)
No Sweep → Slight High-first tilt

Quick read: Small Asia is more trend-biased; price more often continues in the direction of Pre-London’s last sweep.

London Session (03:00 – 05:00 ET)

What Typically Happens After OR Breaks

Once the Opening Range establishes a direction (High or Low break), the London session often expands that move.
Continuation probability: ~69 – 87% depending on the branch.

Asia Above Average (> 70.9 pts)

London Decision Tree and Statistics

This group shows fastest continuations and deeper penetrations (≈ 38 pts).
When Asia is large, direction from Pre-London → OR → London is highly structured and often one-sided.

Asia Below Average (≤ 70.9 pts)

London Decision Tree and Statistics

Smaller Asia sessions show more retests and slightly slower expansion (≈ 24–29 pts).
Continuations remain dominant, but patience is required — late reclaims or flip setups appear more frequently.

Median Penetration vs Time-to-Sweep

The following comparison shows how penetration depth scales with volatility regime.
Large Asia days produce faster and broader extensions, while small Asia days are tighter and slower.

Practical Application

Same-Side Continuation after OR
Enter on retest of the swept OR edge (reclaim / fail).
Continuation probability ≈ 70–86%.
TP1 = ½ median; TP2 = 1× median; runner toward OR range multiple.
Flip-and-Go after Fakeout
If OR flips against PL, let London sweep and reclaim.
Enter on the retest; book earlier profits due to two-sided risk.
Avoid Weak Contexts
Tiny OR range + no retest or mixed PL bias = low-probability environment.
Flat tape after Asia + no clear PL edge → stand down or trade smaller size.

The Professional Edge

London is the expansion engine of the Nasdaq session map.
Across 719 days, London expanded the OR range ≈ 90–100% of the time — and on OR no-sweep days, expansion was 100%.

That means traders can plan for movement, not guesswork.
The first London breach + retest remains the highest-quality entry in the entire model.

This study quantifies what many discretionary traders sense intuitively — and turns it into a mechanical, evidence-based framework.

Access the Data in Real Time

You can explore and visualize these probabilities directly inside TradingView using the free indicator:
👉 NQ Asia–London Session Edge (Herman)

The indicator automates the Asia, Pre-London, OR, and London session boundaries, displays live sweep detection, and overlays the statistical context covered in this research.

Conclusion

The NQ London Playbook shows how statistical structure can replace intuition in day trading.
By classifying each day by Asia range and Pre-London behavior, then tracking the OR and London continuations, traders can operate with defined expectations instead of hope.

London sweeps at least one OR edge on ≈ 80–90% of days.
Continuations occur ≈ 70–87% of the time by branch.
Median penetrations range 17–40 pts, with fastest branches (2–6 min) after Asia Large.
Structured targets and stop zones can be derived directly from these medians.

Quantified probabilities.
Real data.
Mechanical logic for a discretionary world.

For future updates, research studies, and indicator releases:
Visit hermantrading.pro
and follow @R_Herman_ on X.

NQ London Playbook — Decision Tree (with stats)